This blog has received a top-secret leak of Nicola Sturgeon’s forthcoming speech on IndyRef2. Here’s the draft:
Journalists, and people called ‘Ruth’, ask me every day whether I will give up on a second independence referendum.
I’d like to give a simple, direct, once-and-for-all answer:
Let me explain why.
The clue is in the name of the party I lead – the Scottish National Party. The SNP is here because we believe in independence for Scotland. Our primary purpose is to let the people of Scotland govern Scotland.
There are many ways that might be achieved. It might be via a brief Act of Parliament – that was how Canada became independent in 1931 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statute_of_Westminster_1931), and Malta in 1964. Or it might be via a treaty, which is how the Philippines became independent in 1946 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Manila_(1946)). Or it might be via a referendum. All of these ways can be democratic, fair, representative routes to independence.
I am not going to give up on a second independence referendum. Or on any of the other ways in which the country I call home can, finally, return to the fold of independent, democratic states governed by and for the people who live here.
I am especially not going to give up on any of the ways of winning independence in the middle of the Brexit negotiations. The Tory party has chucked Britain to the dogs, destroying jobs, driving many of the migrants who contribute to our economy out of the country and cutting our universities off from funding. David Davis will use everything we have – our fisheries, our farming, renewable energy, our whisky and our tourism – as pawns in a negotiation that is designed to save Tory skins, and to keep London’s all-powerful financial industry alive. It is the biggest constitutional and economic change of this generation and will have repercussions for our children and our grandchildren. The people of these islands are resilient and resourceful, but they will need every ounce of that resilience to survive and then adapt to the changes that Brexit could bring.
Two specific changes illustrate the problem. The first is a dramatic change in the way that we are governed. Scotland has a devolved parliament at Holyrood. There is much that this parliament lacks, but within the strict limitations laid down by the devolution settlement it does give the people of Scotland a measure of autonomy.
That is about to change. When the UK departs the EU, powers that are currently held at Brussels (on food and packaging for example) will be brought back. But not to Holyrood. They will stick – as Theresa May has made clear – in Westminster. The new ‘UK single market’ will be dominated by the interests of London, not those of Scotland. This will be bad for all of us, but perhaps especially bad for the fish industry in Scotland (see https://www.strath.ac.uk/research/internationalpublicpolicyinstitute/ourblog/march2017/brexitpowersandthescottishparliamentthecaseofagricultureandfisheries/).
The people of Scotland are about to see their parliament dismembered by Brexit.
The second change is worse. Because it will affect, one way or another, every family in Scotland. Brexit will smash the economy. We will lose the EU grants that have helped to pay for our roads, ports and infrastructure. Our universities will lose research funding, and we are already suffering from a brain drain and a carer crisis as EU nationals look for jobs in countries that allow freedom of movement. Our workers will lose the protection that EU safety and workers’ rights legislation has brought them. And, ironically, our hospitals and care centres will lose the EU migrant staff who provide a bedrock of care. Companies will lose the ability to recruit specialists across the wide EU talent pool – and that will mean a further erosion of productivity for Scotland’s businesses.
All of this because David Cameron could not bring his Tory party round to understanding the benefits of EU membership. Perhaps now he realises the damage he has done. Then again, given the Tories’ instant conversion from ‘Remainers’ to ‘Leavers’, perhaps not.
How can Scotland escape from the turmoil and damage of Brexit? We can't. We will be hit just as badly as our friends and families in England. But we can allow ourselves one glimmer of hope. A tiny light at the end of the dark Brexit tunnel. That light is shining on an independent Scotland, able to stand up and take its own decisions on how it wants to be, how it wants to relate to our many friends across the water in Europe.
So no, I will never give up on any of the democratic, transparent, honest and fair means we have of winning for the people of Scotland the right to govern their own country. It is, truly, the light at the end of the Brexit tunnel.